Prediction markets for public opinion

Prediction markets require users to translate beliefs into data.

  • “We’re in a bull market” must be expressed as “Bitcoin will be worth over [$price] on [date] according to [exchange].”

This means they can only address beliefs that can be easily derived from data.

But many of our most important beliefs, cannot:

  • “Taxation is theft.”

  • “God exists.”

  • “Epstein didn’t kill himself.”

What data could possibly confirm or refute these? It’s not possible.

But using Ideamarket, you could create a prediction market based on what the public will believe 1 year from now. Throughout the year, both sides will be incentivized to produce the best possible evidence for their case, and to understand the arguments on both sides, and to judge honestly.

Ideamarket could make prediction markets exponentially more useful by enabling them to address subjective, un-resolvable, human questions: prediction markets for public opinion.

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