Ideamarket Docs
  • Introduction
  • 1-minute onboarding
  • Selling old tokens & unstaking
  • Navigating the app
    • How to make a good post
    • Citations
    • Post page
    • User Profile
    • Why rate posts?
  • $IMO token
  • So we've posted your thought
  • Offical T-Shirt
  • Join us on Discord
  • Build with us!
  • Use Cases
    • The New News
    • The Last Internet Argument
    • DeSci credibility, citations, and income
    • DAOs: Activism-for-profit
    • Prediction markets for public opinion
    • Crazy ideas
  • Roadmap
    • Partnerships & Integrations
    • Global knowledge graph
    • Bounties
  • PHILOSOPHY
    • Future epistemology (Ribbonfarm)
    • Status vs Truth
    • Summary of hypotheses
    • Heat Death of the Infoverse
    • Sun vs Wind
    • Bullshit recapture technology
    • Mirroring the world brain
    • Increasing population-scale comprehension
    • Journalism must become the trust-earning business
    • Exit the intellectual mafia
    • An Open Letter to Revolutionaries
    • Ideamarket Art
    • Does Ideamarket "measure truth"?
    • Beware "cryptographic truth" and the ledger of record
    • Meme Vault
  • FAQ
    • Why Arbitrum?
  • Past Experiments
    • Social account markets
    • The URL Market
  • Contracts
    • Quantstamp Audit
    • Overview
    • Bonding curve
    • IdeaTokenFactory
    • IdeaTokenExchange
    • InterestManager
    • IdeaTokenVault
    • MultiAction
    • IdeaTokenNameVerifier
  • Legal
    • Terms of Service
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  1. Use Cases

Prediction markets for public opinion

Prediction markets require users to translate beliefs into data.

  • “We’re in a bull market” must be expressed as “Bitcoin will be worth over [$price] on [date] according to [exchange].”

This means they can only address beliefs that can be easily derived from data.

But many of our most important beliefs, cannot:

  • “Taxation is theft.”

  • “God exists.”

  • “Epstein didn’t kill himself.”

What data could possibly confirm or refute these? It’s not possible.

But using Ideamarket, you could create a prediction market based on what the public will believe 1 year from now. Throughout the year, both sides will be incentivized to produce the best possible evidence for their case, and to understand the arguments on both sides, and to judge honestly.

Ideamarket could make prediction markets exponentially more useful by enabling them to address subjective, un-resolvable, human questions: prediction markets for public opinion.

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Last updated 2 years ago

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