# Prediction markets for public opinion

Prediction markets require users to translate beliefs into data.

* “We’re in a bull market” must be expressed as “Bitcoin will be worth over \[$price] on \[date] according to \[exchange].”

This means they can *only address beliefs that can be easily derived from data.*

But many of our most important beliefs, cannot:

* **“Taxation is theft.”**
* **“God exists.”**
* **“Epstein didn’t kill himself.”**

What data could possibly confirm or refute these? It’s not possible.

But using Ideamarket, you could create a prediction market based on *what the public will believe 1 year from now.* Throughout the year, both sides will be incentivized to produce the best possible evidence for their case, *and* to understand the arguments on both sides, *and* to judge honestly.

Ideamarket could make prediction markets exponentially more useful by enabling them to address subjective, un-resolvable, *human* questions: **prediction markets for public opinion.**


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