Is Ideamarket a prediction market?

Ideamarket is not a prediction market. On a prediction market:

  • Winners and losers are decided by specific events

  • The market closes at a certain moment

  • An oracle reports what’s “true”

Ideamarket is more like a commodity market:

  • Winners and losers are decided by market cycles

  • The market never closes — it’s perpetual

  • There’s no oracle or “source of truth." Instead, the market aggregates its participants’ subjective judgments from moment to moment, informed by freely chosen set of criteria, and the hindsight of history and experience.

Ideamarket is designed to allocate scarce natural resources — trust and attention — between parties with conflicting interests.