The real question:
If yes — there’s the underlying value.
“Black elephants” are things that have been publicly known for a long time, just disregarded, that suddenly happen and get called “black swans.”
But it's not a black swan — it was there the whole time, we just weren’t looking.
The spread of COVID is a perfect example. Millions of people knew COVID was 1) important and 2) coming to America in January 2020. But the New York Times didn't sound the alarm until mid-March.
How many lives could have been saved if the American public had been paying attention to the best amateur journalists instead of the worst professionals?
How many trillions of dollars of unnecessary economic damage?
The cost of those losses is the value lost to poor attention allocation.
Attention management = risk management.